Обзор EUR/USD. 9 июля. Прогноз по системе «Каналы регрессии». Ключевое событие дня – выступление Джерома Пауэлла в Конгрессе

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Обзор EUR/USD. 9 июля. Прогноз по системе «Каналы регрессии». Ключевое событие дня – выступление Джерома Пауэлла в Конгрессе

Технические данные:

Старший канал линейной регрессии: направление – вверх.

Младший канал линейной регрессии: направление – вверх.

Скользящая средняя (20; сглаженная) – вниз.

СCI: -109.6777

Несмотря на полное отсутствие важных новостей в понедельник, 8 июля, пара EUR/USD все-таки продолжила нисходящее движение. Была осуществлена крайне неуверенная попытка начать восходящую коррекцию, однако она завершилась отбоем от уровня Мюррея «4/8». Сегодня, 9 июля, единственным значимым событием дня будет выступление главы ФРС перед Конгрессом США. Джером Пауэлл однозначно затронет темы монетарной политики, перспектив экономического роста страны, а также ответит на вопрос депутатов. Вопрос в том, какая информация попадет в СМИ и будет ли, на что трейдерам обратить свое внимание. Вряд ли Пауэлл напрямую заявит, что снизит ставки или что инфляция находится на крайне низком значении (тем более, что это не так). Но даже в случае откровенно «голубиной» риторики Пауэлла, как мы уже неоднократно говорили, в противостоянии евро и доллара, у первого все равно остаются более слабые позиции. ЕЦБ точно так же в ближайшее время может снизить ключевую ставку, только, в отличие от ставки ФРС, европейская ставка станет отрицательной. Таким образом, мы считаем, что, во-первых, откровенно «голубиной» риторики не будет, во-вторых, если доллар США и окажется под давлением, то лишь на непродолжительный отрезок времени. С технической точки зрения Хайкен Аши продолжает окрашивать бары в голубой цвет, что сигнализирует о непрекращающемся движении вниз.

Ближайшие уровни поддержки:

S1 – 1,1169

S2 – 1,1108

S3 – 1,1047

Ближайшие уровни сопротивления:

R1 – 1,1230

R2 – 1,1292

R3 – 1,1353

Торговые рекомендации:

Валютная пара EUR/USD продолжает нисходящее движение. Сейчас, таким образом, рекомендуется продолжать продавать евровалюту с целью уровень Мюррея «3/8» — 1,1169 до разворота индикатора Хайкен Аши наверх.

Покупать евро рекомендуется после того, как трейдеры закрепятся обратно выше скользящей средней линии, что изменит тенденцию на восходящую, с первой целью 1,1353.

Помимо технической картины следует также учитывать фундаментальные данные и время их выхода.

Пояснения к иллюстрациям:

Старший канал линейной регрессии – голубые линии однонаправленного движения.

Младший канал линейной регрессии – фиолетовые линии однонаправленного движения.

CCI – голубая линия в окне индикатора.

Скользящая средняя (20;сглаженная) – голубая линия на графике цены.

Уровни Мюррея – разноцветные горизонтальные полосы.

Хайкен Аши – индикатор, окрашивающий бары в голубой или фиолетовый цвета.
Обзор EUR/USD. 9 июля. Прогноз по системе «Каналы регрессии». Ключевое событие дня – выступление Джерома Пауэлла в Конгрессе
Обзор EUR/USD. 9 июля. Прогноз по системе «Каналы регрессии». Ключевое событие дня – выступление Джерома Пауэлла в Конгрессе
С уважением,
Аналитик: Станислав ПолянскийГК ИнстаФорекс © 2007-2019
 

 

Источник: mt5.com

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