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Однако если выступление Владимира Путина, по сути дела, оказалось проходным и не внесло хоть какой-то ясности во всю эту ситуацию, то вот пятничная пресс-конференция главы Банка России стала действительно крайне важным событием. Еще госпожа Набиуллина не успела завершить свое выступление, как эта пресс-конференция стала центральной темой всех выпусков экономических новостей. В течение нескольких дней все только тем и занимались, что писали о том, что Банк России может снизить ключевую ставку аж до 4,5%. Прекратили об этом говорить только после выступления Владимира Путина. Так вот, я вообще не понимаю, чем эти самые журналисты слушают. Кажется, они слышат только то, что хотят, а не то, что говорят на самом деле. Эльвира Набиуллина говорила не об этом. Она лишь сказала, что в ходе предыдущего заседания правления Банка России рассматривалась возможность снижения ключевой ставки не только на пятьдесят базисных пунктов, но в том числе и на сто. И что решение о масштабах снижения ключевой ставки будет приниматься исходя из текущей ситуации. Иными словами, классическое «если то». Правда, вот параметры этого самого «если» совершенно непонятны. Ну а самое главное, что ничего нового и неожиданного в этом нет. После того как Федеральная Резервная Система в ходе аж двух экстренных заседаний рекордными темпами снижала ставку рефинансирования, было совершенно очевидно, что и другие центральные банки будут делать нечто подобное.
Но все эти дни я все ждал, что хоть кто-то наконец заговорит о том, о чем в действительности говорила госпожа Набиуллина. Но нет, все только и талдычат про ключевую ставку. А ведь глава Банка России сделала крайне важные заявления. Причем одно из них, по сути дела, является анонсированием кардинальной перестройки всей финансовой системы. Во-первых, Эльвира Набиуллина акцентировала внимание на том, что уровень государственного долга у нас невероятно низкий, и это дает Банку России пространство для маневра. Имеется в виду то, что государство в случае необходимости может свободно увеличить размер заимствований, причем без какой-либо опаски относительно дефолта и так далее. А подобные слова из уст главы Центрального банка являются ничем иным, как сообщением о том, что Банк России вполне может выступить покупателем этих самых государственных долгов. То есть в переводе на человеческий язык это не что иное, как прямое финансирование государственного бюджета Центральным банком. И когда я это услышал, мне сразу вспомнился график инфляции за 1992 и 1993 года, когда именно этим Центральный банк и занимался. А тогда инфляция достигала нескольких тысяч процентов в год. Те, кто жил в те чудные времена, прекрасно помнят, с какой скоростью росли цены в магазинах. Сомневаюсь, что есть желающие вновь испытать те незабываемые ощущения. Но в данном случае я возможно и преувеличиваю. Но лучше сразу перестраховаться. Однако самым важным заявлением стало объявление о запуске годовых аукционов РЕПО, причем с плавающей ставкой. Дело в том, что у нас действует система фиксированных процентных ставок, и изменения ключевой ставки Банка России никак не сказываются на действующих кредитных или депозитных договорах. Система же плавающих процентных ставок подразумевает, что ставки по кредитам и депозитам не фиксированы, а рассчитываются по формуле, где главной переменной является ставка рефинансирования. И если вы взяли кредит под 10% годовых, а Центральный банк потом изменил ставку рефинансирования, то и ставка вашего кредита тут же пересчитывается, и с даты изменения ставки рефинансирования вы уже платите другие проценты. Понятное дело, что подобная система подразумевает совершенно иное финансовое планирование для бизнеса. Да и для граждан тоже. Так вот, если Банк России начинает выдавать займы банкам по системе плавающих процентных ставок, то это является началом перехода от системы фиксированных процентных ставок к плавающим. Совершенно очевидно, что бизнесу уже прямо сейчас нужно нанимать специалистов, которые смогут подготовить все необходимые рекомендации и инструкции по финансовому учету и планированию. Но все глашатаи только про снижение ключевой ставки и кричат. А через два-три года, когда начнут вводить систему плавающих ставок, бизнес окажется совершенно к этому не готов. Хорошо, если к этому времени он наконец начнет приходить в себя от нынешних потрясений, а там сразу вот такое. Нас захлестнет новая волна банкротств и увольнений. Причем Банк России уже предупредил нас, что движется в этом направлении. Но сам бизнес не слушает, что там говорит глава Банка России, так как не совсем понимает, какие выводы ему из этого делать. А журналисты и эксперты, в чьи функции и входит эта самая разъяснительная работа, непонятно, чем занимаются. Но винить во всем потом вновь будут государство. Хотя бизнесу стоит руки и головы поотрывать всем этим журналистам и им подобным.
Хотя удивляться этому идиотизму, откровенно говоря, нечего. Буквально пару дней назад на одном неплохом научно-популярном интернет канале появилось видео с довольно известным и популярным математиком. Я даже детям показываю его в виде, где он рассказывает про решение всевозможных задач и тому подобное. Так вот, при всем уважении к нему как к математику на этот раз он рассказывал об эволюции экономической теории. Остается еще только экономиста позвать рассказать об эволюции китов. Каждый должен заниматься своим делом. Но у нас по важным вопросам экономики просят высказаться только тех, кто узнаваем. И неважно, разбираются они в этом или нет. Так что нет ничего удивительного, что представления об экономике у нас больше напоминают древнегреческие мифы, нежели какое-то рациональное и логическое осмысление происходящего. Для полноты картины остается еще спикером Государственной Думы сделать какого-нибудь породистого скакуна из конюшни Рамзана Кадырова. Вот тогда действительно можем смело говорить о том, что у нас настоящий цирк с конями.
Тем не менее все эти действительно важные заявления Эльвиры Набиуллиной окажут какое-то влияние лишь в долгосрочной перспективе. На данный же момент никаких серьезных подвижек и изменений не предвидится. Да и ситуация с рынком нефти пока относительно спокойная. А следовательно, пока непонятно, куда двигаться рублю. Так что пока доллар будет оставаться в районе 73,50 рубля. Хотя если внешний фон будет оставаться спокойным и нейтральным, просто в силу диспаритета процентных ставок, доллар будет вяло снижаться в сторону 72,25 рубля. Но это скорее среднесрочный тренд.
С уважением,
Аналитик: Александр ДавыдовГК ИнстаФорекс © 2007-2020
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