Всю минувшую неделю, рынок вел себя, мягко говоря, не совсем адекватно. Особенно в самом ее конце, когда стало понятно, что на американском рынке труда начинается настоящая катастрофа. Причем таких масштабов, что уже нет никаких сомнений, нас ждет тяжелейший экономический кризис. И происходит эта катастрофа на фоне дальнейшего ухудшения эпидемиологической ситуации в Соединенных Штатах. От чего, сами Соединенные Штаты, начинают вести себя несколько странно. Точнее нормально, с обычной исторической точки зрения. Крайне показательна история с огромной партией средств медицинской защиты, которая шла в Германию, но по пути была остановлена и принудительно отправлена в Соединенные Штаты. Как говорится, каждый сам себя спасает. И именно эта история отлично поясняет, почему доллар укрепляется, несмотря на ситуацию с рынком труда, и настоящею эпидемиологическую катастрофу.
Тем не менее, нужно признать, что и в Европе ситуация не намного лучше. Что в плане эпидемии коронавируса, так как сама Европа является настоящим эпицентром распространения этого ужасного вируса. Что в плане экономики. Так, итоговые данные по индексу деловой активности в сфере услуг показали его снижение с 52,6 до 26,4. Хотя предварительная оценка показала снижение до 28,4. Да и составной индекс деловой активности снизился с 51,6 не до 31,4, а до 29,7. Правда несколько порадовали розничные продажи, темпы роста которых ускорились с 2,2% до 3,0%. Однако, это же данные за февраль, а сейчас очень модно говорить о том, что мир никогда больше не будет прежним. А для Европы и Северной Америки, где это утверждение крайне популярно, мир начал меняться в марте.
Розничные продажи (Европа):
Американская же статистика и вовсе пугает до ужаса. На фоне беспрецедентного роста числа заявок на пособия по безработице, ждали роста уровня безработицы с 3,5% до 4,0%, а он вырос до 4,4%. Число рабочих мест должно было сократиться на 150 тыс., а по факту оно уменьшилось на 701 тыс. Так что масштаб и скорость изменений на рынке труда, имеют какой-то ужасающий вид. Тем не менее, доллар упорно укреплялся. И во многом, та самая история с сухогрузом со средствами медицинской защиты, шедшим в Германию, а пришедшем в Соединенные Штаты, объясняет все происходящее. Крупные инвесторы предпочитают держать деньги там, где их могут защитить. А Соединенные Штаты наглядно показали, что собственные интересы, и безопасность, ставят превыше всего.
Число новых рабочих мест, созданных вне сельского хозяйства (Соединенные Штаты):
Сегодня никаких макроэкономических данных, способных повлиять на рынок, не публикуется. Так что инвесторы будут ориентироваться на ситуацию с коронавирусом. И как не странно, но это может негативно отразиться на долларе. Пусть Европа и является наиболее пострадавшей из-за эпидемии, но только в целом. Если же смотреть отдельно по странам, то это Соединенные Штаты являются наиболее пострадавшей страной. Тем более, что в Италии и Испании, вроде как, пик уже пройден, и число новых случаев заражения коронавирусом, пошло на спад. Тем более, что после столь продолжительного укрепления, на рынке все же есть все напрашивается хоть небольшой отскок. Так что единая европейская валюта, пусть и немного, но все же будет расти.
С точки зрения технического анализа мы видим нисходящее движение в ходе которого котировке удалось пройти более 300 пунктов и достичь по итогам периодического уровня 1,0775. Фактически нам удалось выработать более половины прежней инерции, где до локального минимума осталось не так много пунктов.
В плане общего анализа торгового графика имеется характерная последовательность из инерций, которая имеет протяженность с начало нового года. Относительно тенденций мы видим, что все последние колебания, не имея значения их масштаб, находились в основном нисходящем тренде.
Можно предположить, что уровень 1,0775 на время сдержит продавцов, где в ходе первичного отката котировке удастся направиться в сторону значений 1,0850-1,0900, где не исключается замедление с последующим возвратом к точке опоры.
Конкретизируя все вышесказанное в торговые сигналы:
— Длинные позиции, рассматриваем в строну 1,0850-1,0900.
— Короткие позиции, рассматриваем в случае фиксации цены ниже чем 1,0775, с ходом в сторону уровня 1,0700-1,0650.
С точки зрения комплексного индикаторного анализа мы видим, что часовые и дневные периоды сигнализируют о продаже за счет устойчивого нисходящего хода минувшей недели.
С уважением,
Аналитик: Дин ЛеоГК ИнстаФорекс © 2007-2020
EURUSD
COVID-19
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