GBP/USD: импичмент Джонсону, благосклонность Германии и флегматичность фунта

Фунт в паре с долларом слабо отреагировал на громкие события выходных: британская валюта продолжает медленно сползать вниз, флегматично тестируя границы 22-й фигуры. Хотя информационных поводов для повышенной волатильности было предостаточно. Политики Великобритании активно обсуждают тему импичмента в отношении Бориса Джонсона (с перспективой судебного преследования), Германия озвучила готовность к отсрочке Брекзита, один из членов английского регулятора не исключил снижение ставки в отрицательную область, а Джереми Корбин снова стал одним вероятным кандидатом на пост премьер-министра. Все эти события и слухи были фактически проигнорированы фунтом – судя по всему, трейдеры находятся в ожидании реальных шагов политиков, тогда как слухи и намерения уже слабо влияют на динамику валюты.

GBP/USD: импичмент Джонсону, благосклонность Германии и флегматичность фунта

Слухи о том, что Джонсон может повторить путь своего коллеги Трампа, подвергнувшись процедуре импичмента, появились в британской прессе на выходных. По информации журналистов, уже на этой неделе соответствующее представление может быть внесено на рассмотрение в Палату общин. Инициаторами процедуры стали представители валлийской партии «Плайд камри» – по их мнению, Джонсон не должен остаться безнаказанным после ситуации с британским парламентом. Как полагают валлийцы, премьер организовал политическую аферу, в которую вовлёк не только правительство, но и королеву, убедив её подписать заведомо незаконный документ. Сегодня представители Лейбористской партии и Либерально-демократической партии обсудят перспективы данного законопроекта, и, по словам многих экспертов, на данный момент нельзя исключать ни один сценарий развития событий.

Стоит отметить, что в истории Великобритании, как и в истории США, еще никогда не было прецедентов отстранения фактического главы государства с помощью процедуры импичмента. В последний раз в Британии подобная процедура запускалась 171 год назад – в 1848 году – в отношении министра иностранных дел Генри Палмерстоуна, которого обвиняли в тайных договорённостях с Москвой. Таким образом, с одной стороны, в контексте современной истории это будет беспрецедентным шагом со стороны британских депутатов. С другой же стороны, действия Джонсона также носили беспрецедентный характер – за всю историю Британии не было случая, когда Верховный суд признавал решение королевы противоправным.

Кроме процедуры импичмента, над Джонсоном «нависла» и другая угроза – объявление в отношении него вотума недоверия. Данный вопрос должны инициировать в начале этой недели две оппозиционные партии – Лейбористская партия и Шотландская народная партия. По информации британской прессы, оппозиционеры могут поставить этот вопрос на голосование в тот момент, когда большинство депутатов-консерваторов не будут присутствовать в зале (на этой неделе запланирована их ежегодная партийная конференция).

Но как полагают политические эксперты, данный сценарий выгоден и самому Джонсону, который хочет выйти на досрочные выборы, в надежде обрести «собственное» большинство в парламенте. Поэтому вышеуказанную инициативу вряд ли поддержат лейбористы – по их мнению, вопрос выборов нужно поднимать лишь после 31 октября, когда угроза «жёсткого» Брезкита минует, по крайне мере до января 2020 года (предполагаемая дата отсрочки). Сейчас в стане оппозиции обсуждают ещё один вариант – объявление вотума недоверия Джонсону и одновременное голосование за временную кандидатуру – Корбина. Согласно данному сценарию, лидер лейбористов уже в качестве главы правительства договаривается с Брюсселем о продлении переговорного процесса и после этого объявляет выборы в Палату общин. Данный вариант развития событий сейчас лишь на стадии предварительного обсуждения, поэтому фунт слабо отреагировал на опубликованную информацию.

Есть и ещё одна причина флегматичности британской валюты. Дело в том, что развилка событий на самом деле носит более простой и незамысловатый характер: либо глава правительства (будь то Джонсон или любой другой) до 31 октября каким-то чудом договаривается с Брюсселем о сделке, либо страна идёт на досрочные выборы после пролонгации переговорного процесса до января 2020 года. А судя по итогам соцопросов, консерваторы продолжают опережать лейбористов на 8-10%, несмотря на все предшествующие скандалы. Другими словами, все текущие события и намерения не решают проблему в целом.

GBP/USD: импичмент Джонсону, благосклонность Германии и флегматичность фунта

Если тори сохранят данный рейтинг, то Джонсон не только не сохранит в перспективе свою должность, но и усилит своё влияние в парламенте. Подобные перспективы продолжают оказывать давление на фунт, несмотря на все попытки оппозиции противостоять действующему премьеру. На этом фоне остальные новости теряют свою «привлекательность». Например, британец проигнорировал сообщение о том, что Германия готова предоставить очередную отсрочку Лондону. Опять же, пролонгация переговорного процесса решает проблему «здесь и сейчас», но общий политический ребус остаётся нерешённым, а наиболее реальные варианты развития событий лишь увеличивают вероятность реализации «жёсткого» Брекзита.

Таким образом, в долгосрочной перспективе британская валюта по-прежнему будет находиться под фоновым давлением. Но здесь стоит учесть, что если Джонсону действительно объявят вотум недоверия с одновременным назначением Корбина, фунт получит временную (но достаточно сильную) поддержку. Данный факт позволит быкам пары gbp/usd уйти на масштабную коррекцию, вплоть до границ 26-й фигуры. С этих ценовых значений можно будет рассматривать короткие позиции, так как дальнейшие события (выборы, победа консерваторов, ужесточение позиции по Брекзиту) могут оказать зеркальное давление на фунт, вернув его к уровням многолетних минимумов.

GBP/USD: импичмент Джонсону, благосклонность Германии и флегматичность фунта
GBP/USD: импичмент Джонсону, благосклонность Германии и флегматичность фунта
С уважением,
Аналитик: Ирина МанзенкоГК ИнстаФорекс © 2007-2019
 

 

Источник: mt5.com

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