EUR/USD. Трейдерам нужно «топливо»

Пара евро-доллар не может определиться с вектором своего дальнейшего движения. За последние две недели валютный рынок остро реагировал на ключевые события фундаментального характера: итоги заседания ЕЦБ оказали кратковременную поддержку евро, тогда как итоги заседания ФРС оказали кратковременную поддержку доллару. Но в итоге валюты остались практически на тех же позициях, что и до сентябрьских заседаний. Основные релизы (инфляция, безработица, промпроизводство) также не произвели на трейдеров должного впечатления ввиду своей противоречивости. Поэтому пара, по большому счёту, застряла в рамках широкодиапазонного флета. То есть, с одной стороны, цена демонстрирует волатильность (то опускаясь к основанию 17-й фигуры, то поднимаясь в область 19-го ценового уровня), но, с другой стороны, она фактически стоит на месте.

Если взглянуть на дневной или недельный график, то мы увидим, что eur/usd с конца июля не может покинуть границы ценового коридора 1,1770–1,1950. Импульсно цена снижалась/поднималась ниже и выше вышеуказанных границ, но затем неизменно возвращалась в рамки устоявшегося диапазона. Вопреки ожиданиям многих экспертов, Центробанки не смогли направить участников рынка «на путь истинный»: ни Джером Пауэлл, ни Кристин Лагард не заинтересованы в укреплении валют, тогда как их «голубиная» риторика не стала катализатором ослабления – ни доллара, ни евро.

EUR/USD. Трейдерам нужно «топливо»

Проблема ещё и в том, что в конце лета пара eur/usd подошла к важнейшему психологически важному уровню сопротивления 1,2000. Выше данного таргета пара в последний раз торговалась в начале 2018 года, то есть два с половиной года назад. Этот уровень имеет стратегическое значение, но для членов ЕЦБ данный таргет – словно красная тряпка для быка. Как только цена протестировала отметку 1,2000, главный экономист Европейского Центробанка раскритиковал курсовую стоимость евро, спровоцировав тем самым южный откат. На рынке появились слухи о том, что регулятор проведёт валютную интервенцию (или по крайней мере, анонсирует её проведение). И хотя Лагард ограничилась лишь «устным порицанием», рынок усвоил урок: как только пара пересекает черту 1,1950, то сразу привлекает к себе внимание продавцов. Покупатели, в свою очередь, фиксируют прибыль, не решаясь на штурм ключевого уровня сопротивления. Иными словами, отметка 1,2000 – настоящая «головная боль» для быков eur/usd. Для преодоления этого ценового барьера необходим мощный информационный повод.

В то же время южные перспективы пары также выглядят туманно. Максимум, на что способны медведи eur/usd, это спуск к основанию 17-й фигуры (двухмесячный минимум был отмечен на уровне 1,1702). В этой ценовой области «просыпаются» покупатели, которые своей активностью гасят южный импульс. Да и общая фундаментальная картина не способствует масштабному усилению американской валюты. Обновлённая стратегия ФРС по-прежнему служит своеобразным якорем для гринбека, тем более на фоне противоречивых данных по росту инфляции в США. Если в годовом выражении индекс потребительских цен продемонстрировал в августе рост, то в месячном исчислении – наоборот, отразил замедление.

Согласно новой стратегии американского регулятора, Центробанк приступит к ужесточению монетарной политики лишь после того, как инфляция закрепится выше целевого двухпроцентного уровня. Однако инфляционный рост носит неуверенный характер, поэтому данный фундаментальный фактор не может служить катализатором ревальвации гринбека. Временное усиление доллара по итогам сентябрьского заседания ФРС объясняется лишь демаршем Роберта Каплана, который призвал своих коллег к более гибкому подходу относительно реализации новой стратегии. Но, по большому счёту, это «глас вопиющего в пустыне» – рынок почему-то акцентировал внимание на его выступлении, но при этом оставил за скобками Нила Кашкари, который озвучил «голубиную» риторику.

То есть раскол в стане ФРС произошёл по двум направлениям – если Каплан выступил за более гибкий подход, то Кашкари озвучил противоположную по смыслу идею: он предложил задекларировать, что ставка будет находиться на нулевом уровне до тех пор, пока базовая инфляция не превысит целевой уровень «на стабильной основе». Несмотря на прямо противоположные мысли, рынок интерпретировал данный раскол мнений в пользу американской валюты. Хотя де-факто итоги сентябрьского заседания оказались явно «голубиными» – хотя бы потому, что Федрезерв передвинул возможную дату повышения ставки ещё на год. Именно поэтому южная динамика eur/usd не получила своего продолжения. Как только первые эмоции улеглись, трейдеры пришли к обоснованному выводу о том, что никаких весомых аргументов для усиления гринбека на самом деле нет.

EUR/USD. Трейдерам нужно «топливо»

Таким образом, быкам и медведям eur/usd не хватает «информационного топлива». Покупателям необходимо зайти в 20-ю фигуру, продавцам – опуститься ниже отметки 1,1700. Экономический календарь следующей недели достаточно беден, поэтому рынок будет ориентироваться на американские политические события, переговоры по Брекзиту и на новостной поток с «медицинского фронта», в контексте создания вакцины от COVID-19. На мой взгляд, приоритет по паре eur/usd остаётся за длинными позициями – доллару не помогли ни Нонфармы (которые вышли в «зелёной зоне»), ни инфляционные показатели (которые также вышли лучше ожиданий), ни итоги заседания ФРС. Единая валюта, в свою очередь, пользуется «молчаливой поддержкой» со стороны ЕЦБ. Поэтому с текущих позиций можно рассматривать лонги с первой северной целью на отметке 1,1930 (верхняя линия индикатора Bollinger Bands) и основной целью на уровне 1,2000. О дальнейших северных перспективах говорить пока рано.

EUR/USD. Трейдерам нужно «топливо»
С уважением,
Аналитик: Ирина МанзенкоГК ИнстаФорекс © 2007-2020

 
EURUSD

 

Источник: mt5.com

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