4-часовой таймфрейм
Амплитуда последних 5 дней(high-low): 28п – 19п – 33п – 20п – 47п.
Средняя волатильность за последние 5 дней: 29п(низкая).
Валютная пара EUR/USD в последний торговый день недели так и не смогла продолжить нисходящее движение, так и не смогла преодолеть первый уровень поддержки 1,0990, отскочила от него и начала восходящую коррекцию, даже с некоторым намеком на увеличение волатильности. Однако несмотря на то, что пара евро/доллар в пятницу прошла 47 пунктов, средняя волатильность за последние 5 дней снизилась до абсолютно минимальных значений – 29 пунктов. Нам даже сложно сказать, как можно торговать пару с такой волатильностью и есть ли в этом вообще какой-либо смысл… Что касается перспектив, то в принципе они, как и общая техническая картина, совершенно не изменились за минувшие 5 рабочих дней. По-прежнему, общий фундаментальный фон говорит однозначно в пользу американской валюты, ее дальнейшего укрепления, однако трейдеры упорно не хотят продавать валютную пару. Показать более или менее ощутимый рост евровалюта также не может, так как для этого нет вообще никаких макроэкономических причин и оснований. Таким образом, мы по-прежнему считаем, что для изменения текущего флэта на тренд потребуется какое-либо важное для пары евро/доллар событие, вроде заседания ЕЦБ, или же выход на рынок крупного игрока.
Единственный макроэкономический отчет пятницы носил, во-первых, предварительный характер, а, во-вторых, в любом случае был проигнорирован трейдерами. Индекс потребительских цен в Евросоюзе в ноябре достаточно неожиданно для всех, и аналитиков, и трейдеров, ускорился до 1,0% при том, что сутками ранее немецкая инфляция таким ускорением похвастаться не смогла. Однако, с нашей точки зрения, этот отчет по инфляции совершенно не означает, что теперь в Европе все хорошо, и настал момент разворота, после которого макроэкономическая статистика начнет улучшаться. Для того, чтобы делать подобные выводы, нужно дождаться, как минимум, окончательного значения по инфляции за ноябрь. Далее, даже если ускорение показателя действительно будет, что это меняет для экономики ЕС или для монетарной политики ЕЦБ, если итоговое значение инфляции +1,0% г/г, а целевой уровень +2,0%? Мы считаем, что это настолько слабое значение ИПЦ, что его ускорение нельзя рассматривать как позитивный момент. Тем более лишь по предварительному значению. Тем более в случае, когда подобное ускорение носит единичный характер.
На следующей неделе состоится достаточно большое количество макроэкономических публикаций и в Евросоюзе, и в Штатах. Однако, если трейдеры продолжат двигать пару со «скоростью» 29 пунктов в день, то большого значения все эти новости и события иметь не будут. Пожалуй, в свете именно такой реакции трейдеров на любые фундаментальные события, особое значение будет иметь выступление Кристин Лагард в понедельник. Напомним, что в декабре состоится первое заседание Европейского ЦБ под руководством именно Лагард, и судя по ее первому выступлению, связанному с обозрением проблем экономики ЕС и монетарной политики, Регулятор готовится к новому смягчению монетарного давления. Если так, то риторика Лагард может уверить или разуверить трейдеров в этом. В первом случае, мы может получить необходимый фактор дальнейшего падения евровалюты, если Лагард опять будет говорить о слабости экономики ЕС и необходимости принятия целого комплекса мер. Во втором случае ситуация не изменится.
Что касается технической картины инструмента, то она сейчас предполагает восходящую коррекцию, которая неизвестно какой сильной получится. Полосы Боллинджера сузились до минимума, что совершенно логично, учитывая текущие уровни волатильности. Индикатор Ишимоку во время флэта формирует множество ложных сигналов, да и сама по себе торговля в узком ценовом диапазоне – далеко не самое приятное занятие.
Торговые рекомендации:
Пара EUR/USD начала новый виток коррекции против нисходящей тенденции, а волатильность остается крайне низкой. Таким образом, сейчас рекомендуется дождаться завершения коррекции и вновь продавать пару евро/доллар с целями 1,0990 и 1,0961. Рассматривать покупки евровалюты формально можно сейчас, так как быки преодолели линию Киджун-сен, но малыми лотами, с целью уровень 1,1047.
Пояснения к иллюстрации:
Индикатор Ишимоку:
Тенкан-сен – красная линия.
Киджун-сен – синяя линия.
Сенкоу Спан А – светло-коричневая пунктирная линия.
Сенкоу Спан Б – светло-фиолетовая пунктирная линия.
Чинкоу Спан – зеленая линия.
Индикатор Боллинджер Бандс:
3 желтых линии.
Индикатор MACD:
Красная линия и гистограмма с белыми барами в окне индикаторов.
Уровни поддержки/сопротивления классические:
Красные и серые пунктирные линии с ценовыми обозначениями.
Пивот уровень:
Желтая сплошная линия.
Уровни поддержки/сопротивления, учитывающие волатильность:
Серые пунктирные линии без ценовых обозначений.
Возможные варианты движения цены:
Красные и зеленые стрелки.
С уважением,
Аналитик: Станислав ПолянскийГК ИнстаФорекс © 2007-2019
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